Since Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, we have predicted that he has a strong chance of winning the presidency again. This forecast is rooted in a careful examination of the current political landscape, especially the performance of Joe Biden during his term. As we analyze the critical issues facing voters—economic concerns, inflation, immigration, and international relations—we can see the fertile ground for Trump’s return to power.
Joe Biden’s Term: Achievements and Shortcomings
Since taking office in January 2021, President Joe Biden has pursued several significant initiatives aimed at pandemic recovery and stimulating the economy. His administration enacted the American Rescue Plan, a $1.9 trillion package designed to provide immediate relief and kickstart economic recovery (White House, 2021). However, the journey has not been smooth.
Biden’s presidency has been marred by challenges, particularly concerning runaway inflation, which reached a four-decade high in mid-2022. Prices surged for essential goods, fueled by disrupted supply chains and rising energy costs (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022). Furthermore, rising crime rates in several cities and concerns over public safety have added to the anxieties of voters, indicating potential weaknesses in Biden’s administration (Pew Research Center, 2022).
Economy: From Recovery to Recession?
While Biden-administered policies did lead to a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.5% by early 2023 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2023), the persistent inflation has overshadowed these achievements. Families are feeling the pinch from rising costs of food, gasoline, and housing. Public sentiment has soured, with many Americans questioning the effectiveness of Biden’s economic strategies (Gallup, 2023).
Americans Feeling the Pinch: The Cost of Living Crisis
The economic strain caused by inflation has left many Americans in a precarious financial situation. A Gallup poll conducted in early 2023 revealed that approximately 60% of respondents felt they were struggling to keep up with the soaring costs of living. This widespread discontent serves as a critical issue as voters head into the 2024 election, reflecting frustrations that could be leveraged by Trump’s campaign (Gallup, 2023).
Immigration Concerns: A Portfolio of Problems
Immigration has emerged as a contentious topic during Biden’s presidency. A surge in migrant encounters at the southern border has drawn widespread criticism of the administration’s handling of the situation, with U.S. Customs and Border Protection reporting record numbers in 2022 (CBP, 2022). Trump has capitalized on these concerns, advocating for stricter border controls and presenting his previous policies as more effective. This issue resonates with voters who prioritize national security and immigration reform, highlighting a potential avenue for Trump’s comeback (The New York Times, 2022).
International Opinions: America on the World Stage
Biden’s foreign policy has not been without its hurdles, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, both events that drew significant backlash (Council on Foreign Relations, 2022). As perceptions of U.S. leadership shift globally, the call for a stronger, more decisive American presence may lead to heightened support for Trump’s “America First” doctrine among voters seeking stability on the international stage.
Concerns: Implications for Businesses and Investors
The implications of the Harris vs. Trump matchup are significant for the future of the U.S. economy. Businesses and investors must navigate a landscape that could be drastically affected by the election outcome:
- Market Stability: A Trump victory could lead to immediate increases in market confidence, while a Harris win might introduce uncertainty as businesses brace for a wave of new regulations and higher taxes.
- Investment Strategies: Investors are likely to shift their portfolios based on anticipated policies, favoring sectors that thrive under Trump’s pro-business stance while being cautious with industries that may struggle under Harris’s regulatory framework.
- Business Planning: Companies may need to prepare for an environment that prioritizes profitability and growth under Trump, contrasting sharply with potential challenges posed by Harris’s policies.
Timeline of Crucial Events for Trump and Harris
The following timeline outlines significant events that have shaped the political landscape and positioned Trump favorably since his announcement to run for office:
- November 2022: Midterm elections yield a mixed outcome, diminishing Biden’s political clout.
- January 20, 2023: Trump formally announces his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election.
- June 2022: Inflation peaks, provoking public frustration and prompting discussion among voters regarding leadership.
- August 2021: The Taliban takes control of Afghanistan; Biden faces scrutiny over the withdrawal strategy.
- 2022-2023: Ongoing immigration crises at the U.S.-Mexico border draw concern from both parties.
- November 2023: Biden’s approval ratings fall as inflation and crime issues persist, bolstering Trump’s narrative.
Conclusion
As we look ahead to the 2024 election, various political and economic factors contribute to an increasingly favorable outlook for Donald Trump. Biden’s term has brought numerous challenges, notably in economic management, immigration, and international relations. Given these conditions and the persistent dissatisfaction among the electorate, Trump’s candidacy could very well resonate with voters seeking change. *Our prediction of a Trump win, made at the outset of his campaign announcement, remains grounded in the substantial issues currently facing the Biden administration. With the months ahead shaping the electoral dynamics, we anticipate a heated contest that could see Trump reclaim the presidency.
*A survey conducted within Wyoming Investor’s team (Directors, Board Members, Staff, Contractors, Associates, Interns) 85% of our team holds the prediction that the Republicans will win the election. Not everyone in Wyoming Investor participated in the survey.
References
- White House. (2021). The American Rescue Plan. Retrieved from whitehouse.gov
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2022). Inflation Data. Retrieved from bls.gov
- Pew Research Center. (2022). Crime Rates and Public Perception. Retrieved from pewresearch.org
- Gallup. (2023). Consumer Confidence Report. Retrieved from gallup.com
- U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2022). Immigration Statistics. Retrieved from cbp.gov
- The New York Times. (2022). Immigration Policy Analysis. Retrieved from nytimes.com
- Council on Foreign Relations. (2022). Foreign Policy Review. Retrieved from cfr.org